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Jordan Love

Jordan Love TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-104/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 57.9% red zone pass rate.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

The model projects Jordan Love to attempt 35.9 passes in this game, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs.

The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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