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Jordan Love

Jordan Love TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Packers as the 5th-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.

The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.

The the Packers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

With a stellar ratio of 2.00 per game (89th percentile), Jordan Love ranks among the best touchdown throwers in the league this year.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Raiders defense since the start of last season (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Packers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: fewest in football.

With a feeble 57.9% Adjusted Completion% (9th percentile) this year, Jordan Love ranks as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the league.

As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

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