Jordan Love TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.6% red zone pass rate.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
The Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the 9th-most passing TDs in the league: 1.50 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Jordan Love has been among the least accurate passers in the league this year with a 55.0% Completion%, grading out in the 6th percentile.

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