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Jordan Love
NFL · Player Props
Jordan Love
QB · Green Bay Packers
TD Passes
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023 Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:21 AM UTC
NFL Props Jordan Love TD Passes

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+118/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +118.

Favors Over
  • The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.6% red zone pass rate.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
  • The Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the 9th-most passing TDs in the league: 1.50 per game since the start of last season.
Favors Under
  • The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
  • Jordan Love has been among the least accurate passers in the league this year with a 55.0% Completion%, grading out in the 6th percentile.
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