Jordan Love TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:11 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (60.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Jordan Love has been among the leading TD passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 1.77 per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
The Tampa Bay cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.

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