Jordan Love TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL in the red zone (59.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Packers.
This week, Jordan Love is projected by the projection model to average the 8th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.4.
With an outstanding ratio of 1.73 per game (81st percentile), Jordan Love places among the best TD passers in the league this year.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in the league.
Jordan Love comes in as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a 61.7% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 13th percentile.
This year, the fierce Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a measly 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

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