Jordan Love TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+143/-186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
The projections expect the Packers as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (59.5% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Green Bay Packers.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
In this week's game, Jordan Love is anticipated by the predictive model to average the 7th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.7.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
Jordan Love comes in as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the league this year with a 61.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 12th percentile.
This year, the imposing Lions defense has yielded a puny 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-smallest rate in football.

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