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Jordan Love

Jordan Love Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Love Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

With an exceptional total of 6.4 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (91st percentile), Jordan Love rates among the best running quarterbacks in football last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.6% run rate.

Jordan Love has been a less important option in his team's ground game this year (0.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (9.2%).

Since the start of last season, the weak Vikings run defense has been gouged for a massive 3.92 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's running game: the 29th-biggest rate in the league.

The Minnesota defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best group of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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