Jordan Love Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jordan Love has been a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this season (12.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (0.0%).
The Green Bay offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
With an excellent record of 7.8 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (97th percentile), Jordan Love has been as one of the top rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
With a terrific rate of 4.15 yards-after-contact (97th percentile), Jordan Love rates among the best running quarterbacks in football this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers as the 11th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 3.72 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Minnesota's unit has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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