Jordan Love Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Love Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Jordan Love has been a more integral piece of his offense's ground game this year (10.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (0.0%).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
Jordan Love's rushing effectiveness (7.03 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (96th percentile among quarterbacks).
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Jordan Love to accumulate 3.1 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

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