Jordan Love Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 5:11 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Love Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jordan Love has been a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this season (10.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (0.0%).
The Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football last year at blocking for rushers.
With a terrific total of 6.6 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (96th percentile), Jordan Love places among the leading running quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Packers being a huge -8.5-point underdog in this game.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Packers to run on 35.7% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (a lowly 56.1 per game on average).
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.

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