Jordan Love Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-117/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
After accounting for 0.0% of his team's rush attempts last year, Jordan Love has been more involved in the ground game this year, now accounting for 11.2%.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
Jordan Love's rushing efficiency (7.11 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (97th percentile among quarterbacks).
This year, the imposing Chargers run defense has yielded a mere 4.53 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's run game: the 24th-smallest rate in the league.

Favors Under

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
In this game, Jordan Love is predicted by the projection model to accumulate the 6th-fewest carries out of all QBs with 2.6.

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