Jordan Love Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Passing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Love Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 234.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 237.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 234.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The the Packers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest clip in the league against the Raiders defense since the start of last season (73.9% Adjusted Completion%).
Since the start of last season, the porous Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a colossal 8.00 yards.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: fewest in football.
With a feeble 57.9% Adjusted Completion% (9th percentile) this year, Jordan Love ranks as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in the league.
As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

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