Jordan Akins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Akins

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 1:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Akins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (69.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.