Jordan Akins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jordan Akins

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Akins

TE · Houston Texans

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Akins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+146/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -189 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -192.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are an enormous 14.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Houston Texans have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.4 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (68.9%) versus tight ends this year (68.9%).
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

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