Jordan Addison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jordan Addison

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Addison

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Addison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their downs: the highest rate among all teams this week.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.5 plays per game.
Jordan Addison has been among the worst wideouts in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58%) versus wideouts this year (58.0%).
This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a mere 6.7 yards.
When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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