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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -185.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dolphins this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is predicted by the model to slot into the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.

Jonnu Smith has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 15.7% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the projections to call just 60.6 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.4%) versus TEs this year (70.4%).

More Jonnu Smith Player Props

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