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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+132/-174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -174.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup QB Tyler Huntley.
  • This week's line implies a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Dolphins to be the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.2% pass rate.
  • Jonnu Smith has run fewer routes this year (48.3% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (62.1%).
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year.
  • Jonnu Smith's 68.3% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a material drop-off in his receiving skills over last season's 71.6% mark.

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