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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Seattle Seahawks vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats inflated) in light of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with improved conditions in this week's contest.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The leading projections forecast Jonnu Smith to accrue 4.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile among TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the 11th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (just 56.5 per game on average).
  • As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Seattle's collection of safeties has been fantastic since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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