My Account Log Out

reorder

Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and running stats too high) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with better weather this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.

Jonnu Smith has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 13.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Jonnu Smith grades out as one of the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

More Jonnu Smith Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™