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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

The Dolphins have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.

Our trusted projections expect Jonnu Smith to total 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.

Jonnu Smith's 38.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 28.8.

Jonnu Smith's 5.0 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a remarkable growth in his receiving proficiency over last season's 3.3 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have only 122.2 total plays run: the fewest among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the 49ers, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.7 per game) this year.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's group of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in football.

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