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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.

This week, Jonnu Smith is projected by the model to rank in the 87th percentile among TEs with 6.1 targets.

Jonnu Smith's 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 28.8.

Jonnu Smith checks in as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging a stellar 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Jonnu Smith's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 71.6% to 77.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.

The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

More Jonnu Smith Player Props

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