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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-most plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a staggering 60.1 per game on average).

Our trusted projections expect Jonnu Smith to garner 5.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

With an impressive 16.3% Target Share (88th percentile) this year, Jonnu Smith stands among the tight ends with the most usage in football.

Jonnu Smith checks in as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 3.6 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Jonnu Smith's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 71.6% to 76.1%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Dolphins being an enormous 8-point favorite this week.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The model projects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.6 per game) this year.

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