My Account Log Out

reorder

Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Rams vs Miami Dolphins

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+108/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The model projects Jonnu Smith to earn 6.0 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.

Jonnu Smith's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 28.8.

With an impressive 3.7 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, Jonnu Smith ranks among the leading TEs in the pass game in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dolphins to pass on 57.2% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the model to call just 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Rams, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.0 per game) this year.

More Jonnu Smith Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™