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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Miami Dolphins vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Dolphins as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Miami's passing stats last year may be artificially deflated (and running stats propped up a bit) due to playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to count on some regression with better conditions in this week's game.

The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel last year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.2 per game) last year.

The model projects Jonnu Smith to garner 4.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

With an elite 14.1% Target Rate (82nd percentile) last year, Jonnu Smith stands as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Dolphins are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are predicted by the model to run just 62.8 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Miami Dolphins profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year.

The Jaguars pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.5%) to TEs last year (68.5%).

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