Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:16 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-143/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +132 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to notch 4.7 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Jonnu Smith's 39.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 16.2.
Jonnu Smith's 75.0% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a a remarkable boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 71.1% rate.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.

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