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Jonnu Smith
NFL · Player Props
Jonnu Smith
TE · Atlanta Falcons
Receptions
Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2023 Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:16 PM EST
NFL Props Jonnu Smith Receptions

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-143/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +132 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +112.

Favors Over
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.4 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to notch 4.7 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Jonnu Smith's 39.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 16.2.
  • Jonnu Smith's 75.0% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a a remarkable boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 71.1% rate.
Favors Under
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 53.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 34.0 per game) this year.
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