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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are expected by the projection model to call 70.0 offensive plays in this game: the highest number among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to notch 5.0 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.

Jonnu Smith's 14.4% Target Rate this year illustrates a substantial growth in his passing attack utilization over last year's 9.0% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

This year, the imposing New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a meager 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the smallest rate in the league.

The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 5th-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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