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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Falcons offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.58 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is expected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.

Jonnu Smith's 14.5% Target Share this season shows a noteable gain in his pass game usage over last season's 9.0% mark.

In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Falcons profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

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