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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

Our trusted projections expect Jonnu Smith to accumulate 4.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Jonnu Smith's 14.1% Target Share this season represents a substantial gain in his pass attack usage over last season's 9.0% figure.

The Atlanta offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 51.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.

The Colts safeties rank as the 7th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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