Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.53 seconds per snap.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have utilized some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
Jonnu Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a measly 64.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

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