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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dolphins this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the league.

In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is predicted by the model to slot into the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.4 targets.

Jonnu Smith has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 15.7% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the projections to call just 60.6 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.

Jonnu Smith's 4.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a noteable reduction in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 7.1% rate.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.4%) versus TEs this year (70.4%).

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against tight ends this year, yielding 6.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in football.

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