My Account Log Out

reorder

Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup quarterback Tyler Huntley.

The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a whopping 60.2 per game on average).

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Jonnu Smith ranks as one of the top TEs in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a remarkable 6.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 89th percentile.

The Patriots linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Dolphins are favored this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their standard approach.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 52.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

After totaling 25.0 air yards per game last year, Jonnu Smith has fallen off this year, currently averaging 13.0 per game.

Jonnu Smith's 19.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 28.8.

More Jonnu Smith Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™