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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

Miami's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially decreased (and running stats too high) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football. We figure to be able to expect some regression with better weather this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may slide.

Jonnu Smith has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 13.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Jonnu Smith has accounted for a massive 9.7% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 55.7 per game on average).

Since the start of last season, the imposing Bills pass defense has yielded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a meager 4.0 YAC.

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