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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Dolphins to pass on 62.3% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

The Dolphins have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.

Our trusted projections expect Jonnu Smith to total 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.

After accumulating 25.0 air yards per game last season, Jonnu Smith has posted big gains this season, currently pacing 33.0 per game.

Jonnu Smith's 38.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 28.8.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have only 122.2 total plays run: the fewest among all games this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the 49ers, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.7 per game) this year.

Jonnu Smith's 5.74 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a significant diminishment in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 7.1% rate.

The 49ers defense has allowed the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) to TEs this year.

The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, giving up 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in football.

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