Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-124/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to earn 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs.
After accumulating 9.0 air yards per game last year, Jonnu Smith has shown good development this year, now averaging 39.0 per game.
Jonnu Smith's 39.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 16.2.
Jonnu Smith has put up a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (19.0).

Favors Under

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jonnu Smith's 5.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season marks a a material diminishment in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 8.3% rate.
The Commanders defense has given up the fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) to tight ends this year.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.15 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the NFL.