Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Jonnu Smith's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this year, totaling 8.03 yards-per-target vs a mere 6.15 rate last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
Jonnu Smith's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.1% to 65.9%.

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