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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Falcons offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.58 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is expected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets.

Jonnu Smith's 14.5% Target Share this season shows a noteable gain in his pass game usage over last season's 9.0% mark.

Jonnu Smith has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (9.0 per game).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends this year, allowing 6.39 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

The Bears pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.24 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the NFL.

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