Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
This week, Jonnu Smith is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 75th percentile among tight ends with 3.8 targets.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jonnu Smith's skills in generating extra yardage have declined this year, totaling a measly 7.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.26 mark last year.
The Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.8%) to TEs this year (69.8%).

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