Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Jonnu Smith has been among the top TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a stellar 8.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 98th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith has been among the least efficient receivers in the league among TEs, averaging a measly 6.16 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 21st percentile.

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