Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 3:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Jonnu Smith's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, accumulating 12.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 7.32 rate last season.
The New York Jets linebackers project as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 10th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 65.0% to 62.0%.

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