Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Jonnu Smith has been among the top TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a stellar 8.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 100th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 2nd-most receiving yards per game in the league (61.0) to tight ends since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.98 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 8th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.0% to 40.5%.
Jonnu Smith's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, totaling a measly 4.46 yards-per-target compared to a 7.30 mark last year.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.1%) to TEs since the start of last season (69.1%).

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