Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jonnu Smith has been among the leading tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a terrific 7.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 98th percentile.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 60.3 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching a measly 65.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile.