Jonnu Smith Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1003).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Jonnu Smith has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 13.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 4th-most TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.53 per game since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 8th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 57.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.0% to 40.5%.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.1%) to TEs since the start of last season (69.1%).
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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