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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-172/+154).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -172.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to run the 9th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game near the goal line this week (58.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (69.8% in games he has played).

Jonathan Taylor has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 8.3% this year, which places him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs.

The Indianapolis offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 56.8% to 100.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a running game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

At the moment, the 3rd-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (49.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Colts.

The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier weather this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Tennessee Titans, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.4 per game) since the start of last season.

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