Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 41.7% rate of running the ball (in a neutral context) this year, the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league has been the Indianapolis Colts.
The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
This week, Jonathan Taylor is forecasted by our trusted projection set to land in the 90th percentile among RBs with 15.0 rush attempts.
Jonathan Taylor has picked up 70.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (96th percentile).

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Jonathan Taylor has been a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this season (26.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (67.6%).
This year, the tough Browns run defense has yielded a puny 73.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 3rd-best in football.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Cleveland's group of LBs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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