Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
Jonathan Taylor has been given 93.3% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts have been the 7th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 32.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing offenses have run for the least touchdowns in the league (0.20 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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