Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-101/-131).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (86.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.4% in games he has played).
Jonathan Taylor has run for 0.40 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (84th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-most TDs in the NFL (1.08 per game) versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.

Favors Under

The Colts are a giant 11.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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