Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-100/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be much more involved in his team's running game near the end zone this week (82.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (68.0% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends project as the best unit in football this year with their run defense.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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