Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-240/+168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +178 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 44.6% red zone run rate.
Jonathan Taylor has received 87.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 1.06 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (99th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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