Jonathan Taylor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
In this contest, Jonathan Taylor is anticipated by the projection model to land in the 84th percentile among running backs with 4.0 targets.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to tilt 1.6% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Jonathan Taylor has been used less as a potential target this season (33.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (64.8%).
The Saints pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.3%) vs. running backs this year (76.3%).
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's LB corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL.