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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.

Jonathan Taylor has run a route on 51.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.

THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to notch 3.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 82.4% to 69.9%.

The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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